Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $95-$100 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ce9319a37c2cfaa96b9631493cd09250715c7b155d011a2a6af5b455067d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,922$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 37c | 1,079$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Yes | 10c | 1,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 21c | 595.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 27c | 575.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 26c | 300.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 275.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…8464backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 20c | 249.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 23c | 248.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 232.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…7e75backed Yes | 40c | 144.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 55c | 136.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb8…1fe9backed No | 74c | 102.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4002…e2adbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 72c | 89.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…5633backed Yes | 44c | 73.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 61c | 63.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…0471backed Yes | 38c | 57.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…914fbacked Yes | 28c | 44.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 26c | 44.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 61c | 37.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $95-$100 in 2025?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$105 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $105-$110 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$115 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $115-$120 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$125 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $85-$90 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$85 in 2025?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$125 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.