Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9daa588fd074eab7fe6bda5de40fc21f61129a03e8db34dadecdb0f6bbc911d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 14c | 1,623$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 1,266$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 31c | 850.45$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…9321backed No | 71c | 564.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 517.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 45c | 367.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 364$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 311.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 52c | 299.77$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.85 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 299.2$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 259.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 257.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 237.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 71c | 233.28$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 62c | 230.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 229.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 46c | 223$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 48c | 200.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 25c | 200.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 187.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 183.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 27c | 175.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 164.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 157.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 34c | 157.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 136.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed No | 76c | 128.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 124.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 49c | 121.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 121.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 121$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 70c | 107.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 36c | 102.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 24c | 99.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 39c | 99.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 95.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed No | 79c | 87.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 87.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 83.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 83.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 44c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 79.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 28c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 67.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 67.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 43c | 64.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 60.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 59.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 45c | 56.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 54.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…a7f3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 46.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 46.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 25c | 43.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 42.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…fed0backed Yes | 35c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 48c | 39.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…fe57backed Yes | 36c | 37.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 37.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…d3c7backed Yes | 62c | 37.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 30.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 60c | 30.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 47c | 29.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 37c | 27.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 26.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…6cefbacked No | 79c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.