Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ce71c6323e254ac1c92297da341d43274a9af18530183541904d0ad1d16ef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 900$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 363 | 22.9%83 W · 280 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 36c | 845.25$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.63 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 22c | 740.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 273 | 26.4%72 W · 201 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 392.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 567 | 36.7%208 W · 359 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 299.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 31c | 249.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…b8eebacked No | 79c | 235.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 35c | 228.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 224.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 29c | 181$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 24c | 171.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 166.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 13c | 154.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 306 | 33.3%102 W · 204 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 520 | 22.5%117 W · 403 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 23c | 148.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 143.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf220…3161backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 14c | 141.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 14c | 141.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 14c | 141.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 14c | 141.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 8c | 137.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 15c | 134.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 489 | 32.7%160 W · 329 L | +22.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 32c | 125.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 33c | 121.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed No | 80c | 120.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 117.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 116.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 110.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 107.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 17c | 100.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 311 | 32.2%100 W · 211 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 38c | 100.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 25.4%44 W · 129 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 596 | 21.6%129 W · 467 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 78c | 96.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 94.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 19c | 82.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 281 | 50.9%143 W · 138 L | +24.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 70.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 65.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 65.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 71c | 63.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…7dacbacked Yes | 34c | 59.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 58.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 39c | 57.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 53.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 51.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 50.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 50.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 388 | 55.7%216 W · 172 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 45.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 44.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 32c | 42.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 34c | 41.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…ae81backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…0064backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…fe57backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 33.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…6d63backed Yes | 31c | 32.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 32.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…394dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a1…19dbbacked No | 75c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…3881backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed No | 69c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…6cefbacked No | 71c | 25.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 24.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 20.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 72c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.