NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc3a9ad9033b61e1f8a41e5c38e5ba9f99c41d20de9a8ae5af7b70b36f2b756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 30c | 1,024$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 994.92$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 911.92$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.18 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 53c | 480$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 324$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.68 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 165.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 53c | 142.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 53c | 91.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 53c | 91.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…76cabacked Under | 53c | 75.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 57.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 53c | 45.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 43.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 54c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 25.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 22.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.