NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11681b21f04e0be7b504a748aa424343ad4930b6e8f67dd577ccbcee50782d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics | 48c | 2,853$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 52c | 2,761$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pacers | 53c | 1,003$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.62 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 43c | 536.48$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.39 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Pacers | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics | 46c | 471.1$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.71 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Celtics | 47c | 272$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Pacers | 54c | 111.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 47c | 59.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Celtics | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Pacers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 46c | 28.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Celtics | 48c | 27.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Celtics | 47c | 25.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked Celtics | 47c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Celtics | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.