NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535203ebb9eaa5f9d0c9958c20a31e887409ff37cfe1b24426bf04dfc46e1dcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc984…2d4bbacked Pacers | 47c | 8,525$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Celtics | 53c | 8,525$4,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,518.25 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 47c | 4,218$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Pacers | 45c | 3,483$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.43 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 55c | 3,191$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 45c | 2,597$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Celtics | 53c | 2,264$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 47c | 1,056$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Celtics | 6c | 1,011$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Celtics | 52c | 576.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.59 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Celtics | 59c | 441.2$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.31 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Pacers | 48c | 352.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.08 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pacers | 47c | 280$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 47c | 273.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Celtics | 53c | 243.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Pacers | 48c | 209.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Celtics | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Celtics | 55c | 181.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pacers | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Pacers | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Pacers | 46c | 110.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Pacers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Celtics | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…db87backed Celtics | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 52c | 100.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Celtics | 47c | 89.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Celtics | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6738…13eebacked Celtics | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Celtics | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Celtics | 22c | 45.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Celtics | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Celtics | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pacers | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 59c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Celtics | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.