NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318ec3f1d970ddaa366c45f8c8930322ea878e7e7a422279a2d61bfb20a715b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers | 51c | 20,075$10,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,924.96 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 50c | 10,087$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Celtics | 51c | 5,922$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pacers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pacers | 49c | 4,872$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.97 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Celtics | 50c | 4,269$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.5 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics | 49c | 3,896$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.07 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 50c | 1,813$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.14 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Celtics | 52c | 1,518$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.36 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Celtics | 50c | 1,362$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.13 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 49c | 1,314$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Pacers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 49c | 624.21$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Celtics | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Celtics | 52c | 496.94$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.41 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Pacers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Celtics | 50c | 396.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.02 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 45c | 382.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Pacers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Celtics | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Pacers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Celtics | 51c | 113.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Celtics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Pacers | 53c | 95.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Celtics | 50c | 91.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Celtics | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Pacers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Pacers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Pacers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Celtics | 51c | 43.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Celtics | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Pacers | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Celtics | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Pacers | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Celtics | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Celtics | 50c | 24.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…6bdbbacked Pacers | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 46c | 22.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Pacers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -12.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.