NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359b57563bbead7c5b8685fc9f39731be6f3a0546bcee62c77436df3bfd7e415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…a66dbacked Over | 51c | 9,173$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 5,128$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.81 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 52c | 4,816$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.21 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,310$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 2,715$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 2,701$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.48 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…f1f6backed Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 51c | 1,372$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 905.77$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.49 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 432.72$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Under | 52c | 315.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…e5b8backed Over | 50c | 236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 223.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…cbe6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 53c | 136.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 105.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 99.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 43.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Over | 49c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…c99fbacked Under | 54c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.