Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ddc46600ceed874c7fbb795564414db028bd154701163c1d5b3f7f853f5ebbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 867.14$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 9c | 770$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 39c | 729.87$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 621.21$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 283.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 278.85$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 28c | 267.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 230.07$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 221.85$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 55c | 206.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 205$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 202.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 57c | 170.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 165.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 156.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 62c | 143$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 142.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 128.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 127.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 10c | 125.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 123.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 42c | 122.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 76c | 120.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 99.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 98.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 76c | 92.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 73.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 72.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 68.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 25c | 61.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 59.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 51.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 44.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 38.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 35.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 61c | 34.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 33.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 35c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 74c | 22.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 56c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.