TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,385 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins23c2,005$468 inLost-$468.1112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies75c1,900$1,425 inWon+$475.0510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies75c278.08$208 inWon+$69.7211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Miami Marlins25c232$58 inLost-$5825034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins7c190.94$13 inLost-$12.64,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Miami Marlins26c152.04$40 inLost-$39.536726.9%18 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies75c151$113 inWon+$37.862,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies74c146.18$108 inWon+$38.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins11c127.02$14 inLost-$13.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins25c95$24 inLost-$23.751,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Miami Marlins24c82.72$20 inLost-$2044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies80c78$62 inWon+$15.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Miami Marlins25c60$15 inLost-$1573243.4%318 W · 414 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies80c55$44 inWon+$113,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca78…fe5dbacked Miami Marlins25c53.64$13 inLost-$13.416227.4%17 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins25c40$10 inLost-$1077836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccb7…0477backed Philadelphia Phillies78c22.97$18 inWon+$5.0511365.5%74 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Philadelphia Phillies77c19$15 inWon+$4.2869447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies76c18.8$14 inWon+$4.511,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2a…7682backed Philadelphia Phillies76c16.88$13 inWon+$4.056955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies77c15.08$12 inWon+$3.474,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.