MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69467dad7ea738a51f0edd48b515e6cd342b12b1411df14feffbe623c7cf6b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 19,860$12,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,129.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 13,185$4,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,780.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 4,693$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 1,853$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 1,361$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 591.88$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 479.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 373.5$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 373.46$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 361.51$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 305.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 178.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 145.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 95.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 89.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 88.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 80.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 76.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 75.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 60.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 59.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 53.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 53.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 50.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 45.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 31.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 27.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.