TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef1b…8697backed Yes52c6,674$3,466 inLost-$3,466.2114042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed No48c4,570$2,194 inWon+$2,376.411656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed No53c887.86$469 inWon+$418.9912154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No48c700$336 inWon+$36461352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes47c351.75$165 inLost-$165.3416746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No48c300$144 inWon+$15648653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No48c280$134 inWon+$145.678155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked No48c250.25$120 inWon+$130.1390446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No50c172$86 inWon+$86.211,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No51c140$71 inWon+$68.61,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes48c98.38$47 inLost-$46.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yes53c94$50 inLost-$49.826,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c90$27 inLost-$27.451,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Yes53c70$37 inLost-$37.15,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Yes52c67.31$35 inLost-$3535240.3%142 W · 210 L-23.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes48c50.54$24 inLost-$24.351,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No49c49.62$24 inWon+$25.319,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a5…3da0backed Yes51c45.58$23 inLost-$23.257349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked No54c40$22 inWon+$18.410249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed No50c39.61$20 inWon+$19.817343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed No48c39.22$19 inWon+$20.397652.6%40 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed No48c30.52$15 inWon+$15.8711256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes50c30$15 inLost-$1545749%224 W · 233 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed No53c20.55$11 inWon+$9.6613250.8%67 W · 65 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.