Mls · resolved market
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de056535c2b519ed60646a650793a4fa97e07590ea595bfbbc3cd7b2fcd7fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 16c | 9,838$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.36 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 9,489$7,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.23 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 45c | 3,927$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.4 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 55c | 3,530$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 37c | 2,889$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.78 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 6c | 2,704$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,667$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 10c | 2,644$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 2,491$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.3 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 55c | 2,354$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.35 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 46c | 1,707$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.29 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 49c | 1,439$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.39 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…a956backed Yes | 57c | 1,405$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 69c | 1,379$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.67 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 41c | 1,316$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.31 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 57c | 839.15$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.56 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 16c | 759.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 654.19$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.8 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 39c | 603.38$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 45c | 531.77$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 10c | 468.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 23c | 466.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 44c | 462.98$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.65 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 51c | 428$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 406.78$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 77c | 351.32$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 61c | 348.73$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 8c | 303.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…c7cfbacked No | 79c | 254.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 244.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 8c | 222.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 214.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes | 58c | 199.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 13c | 196.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 44c | 192.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 32c | 177.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 13c | 170.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 24c | 164.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 57c | 128.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Yes | 39c | 127.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…43debacked Yes | 8c | 124.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 58c | 119.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 118$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 53c | 105.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 37c | 101.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 29c | 100.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 71c | 97.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 88.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked No | 48c | 63.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 77c | 61.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 46c | 59.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 40c | 56.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed No | 49c | 50.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8525backed No | 44c | 39.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 58c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Yes | 39c | 35.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed No | 46c | 34.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 68c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 69c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.