Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8a46a20d1147c356fec443388476cc4888153d1c0c06b4c9cb86cdcd9c50b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 2c | 951$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 564.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 388.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 6c | 381.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 343.68$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 279.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 259.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 204.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 197.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 22c | 173.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 32c | 154.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 20c | 147.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes | 35c | 144.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…ecc4backed Yes | 29c | 140.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 120.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 118.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 108.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 19c | 108.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 107$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 73c | 103.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 18c | 91.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 89.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 85.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 84.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 83.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 26c | 82.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 80.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 76.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 73c | 75.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 28c | 72.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 63.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 19c | 56.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes | 37c | 53.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 51.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 50.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 30c | 49.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 47.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 44.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 43.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 43.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 39.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…0908backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 25.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 71c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 66c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 73c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 74c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.