Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdffafcd64d8b8160d58d054f0b35ece98a3237a512f92fbf9a6725a17af66e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 992.84$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 30c | 713.21$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 560.17$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 71c | 462.81$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 437.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 10c | 291.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 283.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 263.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 16c | 227.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 223.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 216.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 186.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 54c | 184.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 181.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 176.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 25c | 170.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 161.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 160.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 69c | 144.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 15c | 140.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 132.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 66c | 131.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 47c | 127.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 80c | 125.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 118.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 28c | 115.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 12c | 110.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 93.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 81.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 80.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…5d8bbacked No | 65c | 76.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 58c | 76.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked No | 45c | 74.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 33c | 64.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 55c | 63.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 62.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 54c | 56.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed Yes | 53c | 56.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 21c | 55.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 44c | 54.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 54.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 39c | 51.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 47.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 47.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…2a52backed Yes | 45c | 45.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 44.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 38c | 44.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 79c | 41.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 40.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 40c | 40.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 78c | 38.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 36.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 36.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 35.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 36c | 35.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…0908backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 28.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 55c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 72c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 58c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 65c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 23.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 72c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 58c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 60c | 21.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…1ddcbacked Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 52c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…f291backed No | 72c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9871…8650backed No | 74c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.