Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu Kinoshita
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8e20d29d867b2db2d0636611a99bcc33be4de3f4d1ee58c5ddba5ee158cffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darja Semenistajaof Darja Semenistaja, Hayu Kinoshita
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 57c | 19,831$11,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,531.37 | 175 | 56.6%99 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hayu Kinoshita | 39c | 8,310$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 5,696$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.28 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hayu Kinoshita | 8c | 4,623$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Hayu Kinoshita | 26c | 3,236$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.31 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Darja Semenistaja | 57c | 3,066$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.34 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hayu Kinoshita | 7c | 2,507$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 2,060$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.49 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 1,324$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.52 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Hayu Kinoshita | 31c | 1,245$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.02 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 1,038$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Hayu Kinoshita | 2c | 664.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hayu Kinoshita | 8c | 663.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Darja Semenistaja | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 445.03$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Darja Semenistaja | 54c | 400$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 342.68$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 284.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Hayu Kinoshita | 17c | 265.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 204.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…d8fcbacked Darja Semenistaja | 58c | 203.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Darja Semenistaja | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Darja Semenistaja | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 27c | 186.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Darja Semenistaja | 55c | 157.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Darja Semenistaja | 58c | 152.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 9c | 115.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Darja Semenistaja | 72c | 115.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Darja Semenistaja | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Hayu Kinoshita | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Darja Semenistaja | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 369 | 46.9%173 W · 196 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 99.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Darja Semenistaja | 65c | 98.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed Hayu Kinoshita | 45c | 84.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Hayu Kinoshita | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Hayu Kinoshita | 18c | 63.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…3798backed Hayu Kinoshita | 45c | 53.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Hayu Kinoshita | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 52.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 51.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Hayu Kinoshita | 40c | 50.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Darja Semenistaja | 59c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed Darja Semenistaja | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 70c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 269 | 55%148 W · 121 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 41.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Darja Semenistaja | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Darja Semenistaja | 57c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Hayu Kinoshita | 39c | 36.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd5…0c77backed Darja Semenistaja | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hayu Kinoshita | 44c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Darja Semenistaja | 56c | 34.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…cc2ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Darja Semenistaja | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Darja Semenistaja | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Darja Semenistaja | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Hayu Kinoshita | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…b90bbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…4c3abacked Darja Semenistaja | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 147 | 75.5%111 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 103 | 95.1%98 W · 5 L | +25.4wins | +0.25per pick | 70cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 69c | 18.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…2a99backed Darja Semenistaja | 70c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 14.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.