Us Politics · resolved market
More Epstein files released in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebebf3acdf284e694e520d35f64f9159375ef385eabb857983b189fbffe7b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 4c | 6,944$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,906$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.7 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,042$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 997.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 11c | 883.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Yes | 28c | 721.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf652…56afbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 581.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 511.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 12c | 449.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 78c | 448$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 18c | 439.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 12c | 265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 242.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…253dbacked Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ea…9a8cbacked No | 80c | 161.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…8acbbacked Yes | 17c | 150.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 63c | 143.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 75c | 127.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…4288backed Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf4…e0f3backed Yes | 24c | 84.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 83.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 77.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 16c | 63.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…b196backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…ec9bbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 78c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.