Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ecdb0b483e35e5b8d56887147265f8d36a39d1cacac3347a634c6d0baa8a5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 898.51$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 881.78$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 549.49$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 57c | 227.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 48c | 207.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 201.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 184.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 177.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 122.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 113.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 95.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 84.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 80.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 79.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 73.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 66.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 46c | 64.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 62.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 57c | 52.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 52.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 60c | 51.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac60…5548backed Yes | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 44.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 51c | 41.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 41.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed Yes | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 56c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 56c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…bc9abacked Yes | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 59c | 28.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 70c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9e…31edbacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…7ebabacked Yes | 60c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 69c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.