Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eeb3109a57ef31eb57c89db29b4840da425408537e1309d3a2daaca07d063a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 884.48$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 74c | 317.61$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 67c | 303$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 275.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 17c | 252.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 239.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 235$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 234.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 223.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 21c | 163.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 130.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 79c | 112.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 18c | 108.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 103.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 65c | 84.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 83.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 18c | 70.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 65.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 62.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 62.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 60.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 54.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 50.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 50.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 48.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 41c | 44.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 40c | 44.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 43.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 40.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 27c | 38.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 35.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 35c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 27.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 52c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 58c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 68c | 19.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed No | 64c | 16.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.