Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c95af241734d3aa5c6f8edbc0fc216a964ba79437acd4ffb3aa817a1e18204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 801.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 526.85$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 10c | 420.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 9c | 408.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 43c | 339.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 77c | 311.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…8f68backed No | 7c | 306.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 12c | 294.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 287.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 10c | 280.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 253.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 235$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 218.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 12c | 208.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 189.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 186.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 184.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 20c | 177.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 55c | 169.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 163.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 157.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed No | 75c | 154.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 152.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 148.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 119.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 115.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 110.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 35c | 110.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 104.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 103$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 102.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 58c | 92.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 92.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 90.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 12c | 88.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 22c | 88.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 87.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 79c | 85.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 85.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 79.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 23c | 76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 27c | 51.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 50.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 28c | 48.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 58c | 45.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 32c | 42.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 36.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 71c | 36.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 70c | 33.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 69c | 32.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 62c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 76c | 22.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 80c | 21.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 20.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 73c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.