WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f61daa632e8011dfe4db6b022e537948d230705fe0e6e919ff2857b60514f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 5,605$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,995$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.66 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 4,395$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.37 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 2,227$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.79 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Seattle Storm | 80c | 2,178$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 2,090$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.17 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 2,010$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.89 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 23c | 2,006$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.44 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Seattle Storm | 73c | 1,234$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 1,056$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.98 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,049$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Phoenix Mercury | 1c | 1,011$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Phoenix Mercury | 22c | 673.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 624.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Seattle Storm | 72c | 404.55$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Seattle Storm | 58c | 386.04$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…1e15backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 317.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 73c | 273.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 236.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 232.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…f392backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 222.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 137.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdc…ce87backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 133.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 102.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 100.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Phoenix Mercury | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Seattle Storm | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…3d6fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 83.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 82.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 61.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 19c | 54.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Phoenix Mercury | 23c | 51.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 27c | 47.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Seattle Storm | 43c | 47.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 40.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…b54abacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Storm | 70c | 32.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Storm | 40c | 28.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Storm | 66c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Storm | 44c | 26.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Seattle Storm | 71c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Seattle Storm | 79c | 17.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Seattle Storm | 68c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle StormPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.