TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Storm41c20,495$8,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,311.3122748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Phoenix Mercury49c19,036$9,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,727.942339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Phoenix Mercury69c14,355$9,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450.0213950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm40c13,613$5,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.9234726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Seattle Storm52c12,880$6,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,744250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Phoenix Mercury61c11,086$6,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,323.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Seattle Storm4c10,144$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7410923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury51c9,734$4,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,801.3799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm39c7,647$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.1936750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96a9…e073backed Seattle Storm31c6,450$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Seattle Storm4c6,376$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.211533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Seattle Storm36c5,087$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.643073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Seattle Storm1c3,861$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6144915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Phoenix Mercury42c3,355$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.012839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury62c3,266$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.3450646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury68c2,882$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.661,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3695…c66cbacked Phoenix Mercury37c2,713$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Phoenix Mercury73c2,648$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.926100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury58c2,545$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.2485158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm33c2,526$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.0119428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…11d3backed Phoenix Mercury62c2,489$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.951675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Seattle Storm20c2,380$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Seattle Storm31c2,150$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.523931.8%76 W · 163 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Seattle Storm30c2,098$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.984450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc92…649dbacked Seattle Storm39c2,055$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Storm51c2,027$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.524852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Seattle Storm30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Storm48c1,923$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.2131043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Phoenix Mercury53c1,890$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.36956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab0…7147backed Seattle Storm60c1,674$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x308d…3519backed Seattle Storm54c1,603$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Phoenix Mercury60c1,600$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Phoenix Mercury41c1,565$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.2320947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Seattle Storm27c1,496$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Seattle Storm49c1,430$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.684027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Seattle Storm48c1,368$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.315250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Seattle Storm60c1,300$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7842744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Phoenix Mercury63c1,243$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.486746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Phoenix Mercury60c1,205$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.6519458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury62c1,197$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.861,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Phoenix Mercury42c1,148$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.4210463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55c7…f584backed Seattle Storm39c1,135$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.821172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Phoenix Mercury60c1,017$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Seattle Storm1c999.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Phoenix Mercury79c985.06$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2074365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Seattle Storm64c938.49$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.581861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Storm29c937.29$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87b8…e1a1backed Seattle Storm5c907.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0649…2dd7backed Seattle Storm54c833.33$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed Phoenix Mercury77c806.29$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury73c800$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21650952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Seattle Storm27c800$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Seattle Storm30c788.99$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.78733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Phoenix Mercury57c767.38$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.745538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Seattle Storm31c720.18$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7610151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Phoenix Mercury46c700$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.819354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26c7…668abacked Phoenix Mercury73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Seattle Storm3c667.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.016827.9%19 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Phoenix Mercury39c648.03$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Phoenix Mercury71c641.1$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.14763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Seattle Storm60c640.87$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.972065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Phoenix Mercury44c627.46$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3810552.4%55 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Seattle Storm40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Seattle Storm25c622.38$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.26650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+69.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb888…b15bbacked Seattle Storm33c613.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Seattle Storm40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Seattle Storm3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury69c586.74$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4823245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Phoenix Mercury53c562.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.439549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Seattle Storm51c557.47$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.085149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Phoenix Mercury71c548$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.924667.4%31 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Seattle Storm21c547.97$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Seattle Storm64c510$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Seattle Storm40c509.16$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.663036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…ff78backed Seattle Storm57c509.1$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Seattle Storm5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Phoenix Mercury55c500$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2231752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0a…629dbacked Phoenix Mercury75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x293b…15e1backed Seattle Storm32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e7…50d1backed Phoenix Mercury44c499.97$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Phoenix Mercury56c493.1$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.717050%35 W · 35 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Seattle Storm33c487$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.055431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Storm36c480.42$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6418844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Seattle Storm21c480.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Seattle Storm42c478.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Seattle Storm47c476.47$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.962152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Seattle Storm38c474.84$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb5d…0b85backed Seattle Storm30c460.12$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8640…cdf1backed Phoenix Mercury37c447.03$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Seattle Storm44c436.36$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Seattle Storm8c427.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed Seattle Storm45c426.87$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Phoenix Mercury71c422.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.572572%18 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Phoenix Mercury61c411.21$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0313844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm38c403.17$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Phoenix Mercury50c400$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2022642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm41c361.93$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6719031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Phoenix Mercury44c361.21$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.977647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dee…5d00backed Phoenix Mercury79c358.85$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.082050%10 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Storm45c356.33$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.138744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.