WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b8d9dc4bf2750df7e9fe667b7e3dbab66531b4058a17fd99db73004a6dc07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…67c4backed Under | 50c | 8,152$4,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,076 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 50c | 1,998$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,835$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.8 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 50c | 1,761$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 2c | 1,578$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked Under | 51c | 1,518$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.93 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +8.0wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 1,299$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.74 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 52c | 686.89$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.93 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 48c | 652$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Under | 50c | 455$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…cba0backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 58c | 345.84$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 332.97$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…1e15backed Under | 51c | 324.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 7c | 313.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 155.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 50c | 155.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 138.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 48c | 123.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 53c | 117.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 50c | 110.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 54c | 94.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 53c | 69.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…e566backed Over | 52c | 57.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 53.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 50.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…7c43backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…245abacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 33.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 48c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 161.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle StormPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.