WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c6286b304024b35faaab80dbe0ef237a84a500cecf2198158ebef0f3612429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 1,417$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.28 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 1,406$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.4 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 1,299$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.1 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Seattle Storm | 80c | 1,013$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…1e15backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 489.24$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 342.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 273.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Seattle Storm | 76c | 256$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked Seattle Storm | 30c | 255$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +8.0wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 18c | 229.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Seattle Storm | 79c | 205.08$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 199.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…f05bbacked Seattle Storm | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 153.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…e33abacked Phoenix Mercury | 23c | 153.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 145.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Storm | 67c | 138.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 121$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 106.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Phoenix Mercury | 36c | 99.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Seattle Storm | 41c | 97.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed3…135fbacked Seattle Storm | 64c | 69.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Storm | 43c | 61.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Seattle Storm | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 44.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 42.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 42.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 42.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 40.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 29c | 35.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Phoenix Mercury | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle StormPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.