WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e54febfc8a1fcefb485c95eba920fe903fd4fc290ba0c0c1dd13243ba8aa5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…e2cebacked Under | 50c | 4,979$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…5cdfbacked Over | 52c | 2,887$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 5c | 2,162$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.99 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked Under | 52c | 1,489$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.73 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +8.0wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,141$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.69 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 1,097$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.82 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 469.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.06 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…fe54backed Over | 50c | 390.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Over | 4c | 257.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Under | 40c | 228.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 66c | 203.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under | 42c | 201$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 42c | 201$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 42c | 201$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 150.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 114.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 47c | 110.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…063fbacked Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 74c | 88.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Over | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 54c | 72.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Under | 76c | 59.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 53.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 64c | 51.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 22c | 51.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 50.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 43.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…b4b2backed Over | 51c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 24.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 160.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle StormPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.