Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7484422cf385988ed1b944fb04417752b2edc412607b9ce7c792d29e4c7096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,160 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfde8…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…8ffbbacked No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 804.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 14c | 756.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 431.88$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 392.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 347.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 326.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 309.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 12c | 291.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 75c | 219$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…000ebacked No | 5c | 206.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 50c | 201.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 178.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 35c | 170.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 7c | 152.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 42c | 139.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 55c | 137.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 128.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 39c | 126.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 43c | 124.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 121.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 50c | 111.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 111.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 103.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 100.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 96.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 62c | 95.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 93.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 92.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 87.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 53c | 86.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 36c | 84.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 78.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 55c | 74.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 67c | 74.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 74.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 55c | 69.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 61.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 59.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 51c | 58.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 48c | 57.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 59c | 55.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 36c | 49.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 42c | 47.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 47.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…4c04backed Yes | 42c | 45.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…1362backed No | 60c | 44.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 43c | 42.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 42.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 78c | 38.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 39c | 38.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 35.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 34.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 49c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…9511backed Yes | 42c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…4c67backed No | 60c | 30.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 65c | 28.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 49c | 28.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed Yes | 79c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 42c | 25.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…899ebacked Yes | 58c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 44c | 23.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 77c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 74c | 21.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…97d8backed Yes | 49c | 21.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.