TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaddf…2501backed Yes31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b48…73e9backed No69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8b…2ee6backed No69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c431$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e20…0815backed Yes7c429.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes12c421.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.86869.3%8 W · 78 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes10c396.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3333726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes7c317.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.812330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c312.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes9c285.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes11c246.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.311,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes12c244.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8272222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes11c222$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes13c219.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1221448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes34c202$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.21,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x523f…d6ecbacked Yes41c198.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c179.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.021,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9466…4d38backed Yes43c171.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes8c169.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes9c165$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3612223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608431%26 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No68c145.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6227463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes32c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.187939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes27c133$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4319426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf97d…85ddbacked No78c128.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c121.71$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No67c120.46$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.329459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes27c111.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes27c102.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4a…1de1backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.224736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3440438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes14c99.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c92.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c83.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes18c81.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No73c81.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c80.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.823,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes30c71.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3210426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ce…618dbacked No74c65.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.142254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes31c64.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes20c64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8812828.1%36 W · 92 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No79c63.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No71c62.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes17c61.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.63053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes28c59.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5816234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes32c57.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No54c54.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85e3…71e0backed Yes37c53.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c52.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes34c52.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed No52c50.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.161656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Yes46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes33c40.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.491,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes48c37.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0072…6254backed Yes38c37.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes40c33.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bef…97d8backed Yes35c31.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c30.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e9…9960backed Yes37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No70c28.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4619449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc156…08bfbacked Yes40c27.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ba…df9bbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed No65c24.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.749046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fce…409bbacked No64c24.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8118351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes44c23.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e22…1b31backed No66c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.837675%57 W · 19 L+11.8wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked No67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed No61c16.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.