Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f779dbf89f957e62f3cf9c74fea98e824bf59cfa1bbd9d3d176ce3ed8125100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 815.8$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 800.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.21 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 663.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.14 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 589.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 428$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 326.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 297.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 271.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 271.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 264.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 247.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 245.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 206.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 169.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 55c | 169.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 64c | 157.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 154.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 36c | 122.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 53c | 122.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 41c | 111.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 107.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes | 47c | 102.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 100.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 97.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 51c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 32c | 85.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 82.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 75.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 68.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 61.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 21c | 59.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 51.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 50.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 53c | 45.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 77c | 44.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 65c | 43.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 29c | 42.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 57c | 38.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 38.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 42c | 34.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 57c | 33.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 48c | 33.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 74c | 28.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…12e9backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 63c | 26.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 26.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 25.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 25.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 24.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 24.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 63c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 51c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…c31dbacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.