Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5c1730a6fc2c521dca5c68055a504f590de37ba6fde3e01ace331c506ff3e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 730$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 507.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 38c | 498.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 456.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 372.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 303.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 45c | 300$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 276$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 265.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 261.33$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 256$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 226.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 174.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 169.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 167.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 166.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 124.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 42c | 122.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 39c | 108.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 59c | 104$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 60c | 103.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 91.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…f968backed No | 72c | 87.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 84.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 80.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 40c | 76.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 76.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 73.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 65.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 57.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 51.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 45.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 44c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 38.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 45c | 34.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…e361backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 45c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 45c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 37c | 27.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 54c | 25.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…f9f7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 24.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…02d9backed No | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 17.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.