Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd327b040dbb3e2d65ae6089a2ce99d20a4be056318d7aa6b939847f9ea451d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7851…5b4cbacked Over | 73c | 2,010$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,720$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 74c | 1,683$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.17 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 1,149$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.32 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 75c | 499.92$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.94 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 384.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.04 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 75c | 239.46$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 73c | 179.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 26c | 156.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 20c | 114.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 28c | 106.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 52c | 90.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Over | 35c | 85.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 82.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 62.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 31c | 54.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 27c | 53.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 74c | 49.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 26c | 42.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 37c | 39.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 69c | 24.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.