Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd4e8e3e04105041a36f9406f7485945c8132b7438a4a2df4d265ba6dd9ba33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf64…9b58backed Yes | 44c | 2,479$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 470.25$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 367.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 250.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 242.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 74c | 223.53$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 221$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 213$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 207.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 157.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 139.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 41c | 124$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 42c | 123.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 112.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…bc96backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 52c | 96.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 18c | 93.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 69.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 62.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 48c | 62.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 51.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 36c | 37.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 37.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 34c | 36.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 31.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 38c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…fe59backed Yes | 41c | 24.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 54c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.