Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5982d36d093b08dbda1b776054f08e9b2120099b3ad019df474e9179a25e5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 12c | 1,885$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 781.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 675.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 634.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 37c | 622.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.48 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 65c | 379.59$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 309.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 305$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 222.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 14c | 213.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 185.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 184.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 179.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 11c | 149.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 127.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 17c | 119.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 13c | 119.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 112.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 106.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 97.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 91.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 87.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 19c | 80.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…8145backed Yes | 52c | 72.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 62.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 61.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 58.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 56.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 56.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 36c | 51.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 60c | 47.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 66c | 45.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 35.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed Yes | 34c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 50c | 31.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 28.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…fe59backed Yes | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 79c | 25.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 25.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 25.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 71c | 24.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 72c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.