MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa019e88a3fb3e30e52a16f8f9a06a4d31cd1a5f0c79768578d0a4e3e98d28335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Cubs, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x701c…9bc5backed Cubs | 43c | 34,400$14,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,792 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…298cbacked Mets | 57c | 32,200$18,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,846 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…19d4backed Mets | 57c | 31,550$17,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,566.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b804backed Cubs | 43c | 29,600$12,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,728 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Mets | 57c | 1,520$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Cubs | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cubs | 37c | 1,476$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.28 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mets | 57c | 1,077$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Mets | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cubs | 42c | 667.69$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.41 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Mets | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cubs | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Cubs | 6c | 422.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 43c | 392.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cubs | 42c | 385.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cubs | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…deb5backed Mets | 57c | 305$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mets | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cubs | 40c | 228.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Cubs | 44c | 227.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Mets | 56c | 217.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cubs | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cubs | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Mets | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 58c | 172.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 58c | 172.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cubs | 43c | 115.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cubs | 44c | 114.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Mets | 56c | 97.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Cubs | 43c | 80.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Mets | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d8…bb1bbacked Cubs | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Mets | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cubs | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Mets | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Cubs | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cubs | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Mets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 43c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mets | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Mets | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.