TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d07…2b94backed No2c1,233$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9617443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes75c539.54$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.224965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes36c344$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.972,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c246.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes72c218.68$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8245130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No45c217.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.392,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c213.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.246,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No46c169.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c166.4$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.025,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c156$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec64…17c9backed No65c153.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c124.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.037,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No22c117$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No47c112.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5136057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No39c110.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes34c109.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.773,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes41c106.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes33c99.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7617025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c92.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c92.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c92.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes36c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes35c78.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No64c75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes33c73.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.962,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes70c67.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.557953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.793,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No78c64.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed Yes38c63.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.641533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No60c60.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.441,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes34c58.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0647935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes52c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8454143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa9…0c38backed No63c56.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9679…4688backed No62c55.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No35c55.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No41c54.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.642,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7166…6922backed Yes43c52.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.022437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x087e…df61backed No65c52.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c50.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3022744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c47.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes40c47.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No32c47.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes55c47.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1931062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes43c45.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes59c43.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7841051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes77c42.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c42.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.382,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes34c42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7287629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No75c39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes34c37.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes41c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.513050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.115345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes36c34.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.27231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c33.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.066,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No43c31.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes39c28.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2950373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No73c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7147569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No53c25.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No64c25.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes52c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98cf…852abacked Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.432152.4%11 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick72cpaid-27.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No69c21.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0140871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c20.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.616924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked No59c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8232147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No77c18.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1825362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No73c14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2211173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.