Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8800f20d6dc561fdae906a3cb44b2bccb9ab7f9ce6a163971ef6382c1306eee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 1,002$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 974.99$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.98 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 245.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 54c | 238.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 187.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 166.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 161.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 158.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 59c | 152.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 149.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 9c | 138.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 136.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 134.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 125.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 119.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 107.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 103.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 97.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 53c | 92.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 87.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 76.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 75.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 70.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 57c | 68.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 66.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 66.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 41c | 64.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 49c | 62.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 61.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 55.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 53.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 52.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 50c | 48.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…60b7backed No | 47c | 48.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 47.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 52c | 46.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 45c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 53c | 43.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 29c | 42.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 48c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 52c | 38.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 48c | 37.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 61c | 35.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 35.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 34.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 53c | 34.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 54c | 33.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 52c | 32.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 51c | 31.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 43c | 29.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 28.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 48c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 26.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 25.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 25.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 49c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked No | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 59c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.