TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes30c1,002$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7840226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes44c974.99$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c245.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.563,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed No54c238.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.481533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No51c187.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.382,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c166.4$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c161.14$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c158.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No59c152.53$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2619648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No53c149.94$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.841,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes9c138.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c136.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.175,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes37c134.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.777,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No54c125.59$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes42c119.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0822335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c107.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c103.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c97.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.917747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes53c92.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8719734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes51c87.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.935,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes39c77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.415722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No64c76.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.658,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c75.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0318142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c70.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes57c68.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2312540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No58c66.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No21c66.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No59c66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.252,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No62c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes41c64.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.327029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes49c62.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.364141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No53c61.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.562,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c59.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c55.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.023,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes55c54.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8532147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No70c53.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.941,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No57c52.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2641767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.511731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf5ed…0ce8backed No55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes50c48.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2727756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6571…60b7backed No47c48.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes52c47.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No67c47.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes42c47.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No69c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.562,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No52c46.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes45c44.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.227953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No53c43.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes29c42.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3531062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No48c38.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.281,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No65c38.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.571,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes52c38.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No48c37.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.737669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes51c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.383,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9007…cf89backed Yes47c36.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No61c35.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8713274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No61c35.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1515345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes48c34.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9016…3cecbacked No58c34.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.563482.4%28 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes53c34.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No54c33.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No52c32.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.716456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes51c31.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9914646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes43c29.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.274,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No50c28.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3451631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes45c28.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No48c28.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7725766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c26.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.781,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes52c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No65c25.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.092,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No61c25.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.662,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.182,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No63c23.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No52c22.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.923,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No49c22.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3615749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c22.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.469,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c21.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No76c20.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.922,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No53c20.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.843663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.440739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6b4…a65bbacked No55c19.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…2b99backed No54c18.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.65664.3%36 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No59c17.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2620438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.