TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kentucky Wildcatsof Kentucky Wildcats, Santa Clara Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,608 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Kentucky Wildcats46c3,977$1,832 inWon+$2,145.542,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Santa Clara Broncos53c2,427$1,295 inLost-$1,294.8912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Santa Clara Broncos52c1,838$959 inLost-$958.5346246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Kentucky Wildcats46c538.55$248 inWon+$290.6564647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Santa Clara Broncos54c498.64$269 inLost-$269.2723754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Kentucky Wildcats51c437.32$223 inWon+$214.294546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Santa Clara Broncos51c400$204 inLost-$2043531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Santa Clara Broncos53c330.9$174 inLost-$174.311,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Kentucky Wildcats50c198.25$99 inWon+$99.1322250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Kentucky Wildcats46c190.66$88 inWon+$102.9634343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Kentucky Wildcats46c150.33$69 inWon+$81.187447.3%35 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Santa Clara Broncos65c84.58$55 inLost-$54.73,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Santa Clara Broncos15c80$12 inLost-$11.89725.8%25 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Kentucky Wildcats50c63$32 inWon+$31.511854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Santa Clara Broncos55c51.62$28 inLost-$28.3735338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Santa Clara Broncos55c50.36$27 inLost-$27.4514461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Kentucky Wildcats46c30.39$14 inWon+$16.416547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Kentucky Wildcats45c24.78$11 inWon+$13.6322756.4%128 W · 99 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kentucky Wildcats46c24.24$11 inWon+$13.0913445.5%61 W · 73 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Santa Clara Broncos54c20.86$11 inLost-$11.2733058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.