Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $290 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0556bfe0bdbad5651b5f3314aabe88b85dda45e49c05a620b3c92378c49fddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,658 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 52c | 4,605$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.23 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 50c | 3,245$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.05 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 63c | 1,425$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.17 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,370$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.96 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 43c | 1,116$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.82 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 76c | 907$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 32c | 734$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 459.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 7c | 244.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 13c | 224$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.64 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 70c | 157.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 18c | 117.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 54c | 116$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ccfbbacked Yes | 68c | 92.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 87.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 35c | 63.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 44c | 56.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 49.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 36c | 41.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 34c | 35.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…656dbacked No | 66c | 35.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dae…ca23backed No | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…e602backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2789…9caebacked No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $290 in March?this page
- Will Google dip to $215 in March?No won
- Will Google dip to $240 in March?No won
- Will Google dip to $260 in March?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in March?Yes won
- Will Google dip to $300 in March?Yes won
- Will Google reach $320 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $330 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $340 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $355 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $375 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in March?No won
- Will Google reach $420 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.