Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa06c74a8daadcb75dc8f0f8ac204b1cc60840cb73d35acb6c956a989bb291381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 867.29$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 700.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 24c | 673.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 459$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 451.49$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 362.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 342.53$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 336.24$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 334.69$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 323.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 30c | 216.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 79c | 198.51$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 18c | 195.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 195.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 191.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 185.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 169.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 156.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 14c | 144.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 138.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 26c | 134.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 25c | 132.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 77c | 130.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 128.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 25c | 113.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 108.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 26c | 101.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c9d9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 96.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 94.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 79.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 14c | 74.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 24c | 67.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 67.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 23c | 66.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 24c | 65.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 22c | 64.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a28…2c96backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 76c | 59.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 59.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 21c | 56.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 51.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 50.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 23c | 48.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 47.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 24c | 46.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 45.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 45.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 37.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 35.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 28.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 80c | 27.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 77c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 76c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 75c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 71c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 76c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 77c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.