Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fce5471298848c6178da1442737f30c6979c4f679271f0f0db5827caa352500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 455.42$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 75c | 413.9$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 397.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 67c | 388.49$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 69c | 379.14$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 353.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 351.29$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 331.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 33c | 304$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 257.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 76c | 256.2$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 68c | 246.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 28c | 222.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 201.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 73c | 189.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 59c | 187.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 34c | 186.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 59c | 179.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 60c | 168.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 156.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 76c | 140.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 137$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 65c | 133.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 77c | 130.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 30c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 115.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 25c | 113.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 111.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 111.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 61c | 107$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 104.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 101.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 28c | 98.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 90.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…6db5backed No | 40c | 90.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 19c | 89.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 63c | 87.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 56c | 86.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 65c | 84.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 31c | 81.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 63c | 76.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 71.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 63.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 38c | 63.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 32c | 60.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 24c | 59.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…5bf7backed Yes | 74c | 59.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 71c | 56.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 74c | 56.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 61c | 55.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 73c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 42c | 54.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 53.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 60c | 50.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 58c | 47.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 68c | 43.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 42.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 41.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 39.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 75c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 59c | 39.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 37.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 69c | 33.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 59c | 32.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 33c | 31.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc058…481abacked Yes | 61c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.