Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08027995d9d80dcc4cef0f11e47df5ff0644f6e1fc0fd3ea0325bc76f3f5357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 52c | 945.79$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.32 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 849.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 788.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed Yes | 8c | 770.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 22c | 700.4$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 19c | 672.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 17c | 580.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 40c | 545$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 37c | 466.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 74c | 435.84$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 425.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 57c | 415.68$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 13c | 338$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 39c | 260$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 15c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…b6b5backed Yes | 57c | 176.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 151$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 10c | 117$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked No | 68c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 72c | 94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…22fabacked No | 70c | 88.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 65c | 58.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 60c | 57.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 52c | 49.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…a223backed Yes | 36c | 32.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.