TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, GamerLegion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked GamerLegion22c22,964$4,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.0589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked BetBoom Team79c21,217$16,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,489.9313960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed GamerLegion22c20,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked GamerLegion22c11,043$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.8632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed BetBoom Team78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20012348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed GamerLegion22c10,000$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.9926540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked GamerLegion29c9,444$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.5780256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team74c5,254$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.171,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BetBoom Team78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10011953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked GamerLegion23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.9914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked GamerLegion38c3,979$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked BetBoom Team62c3,237$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.2919853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team73c3,000$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.361,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed GamerLegion20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team73c2,904$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.9689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BetBoom Team73c2,879$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.7268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team73c2,589$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.761,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed BetBoom Team78c2,336$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.376841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed GamerLegion21c2,336$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.7228347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed GamerLegion18c2,319$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.3451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed BetBoom Team74c2,248$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.399063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked GamerLegion36c2,077$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.31,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked BetBoom Team80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked GamerLegion21c1,738$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed GamerLegion23c1,530$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7250353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked BetBoom Team74c1,442$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team73c1,436$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.4971143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked GamerLegion26c1,396$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked GamerLegion24c1,300$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed BetBoom Team77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.714258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team77c1,291$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9364744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed GamerLegion32c1,221$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.188648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed BetBoom Team75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30014943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BetBoom Team78c1,130$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.491,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed GamerLegion29c1,105$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1653758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed GamerLegion20c1,097$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4388539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked GamerLegion26c1,034$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BetBoom Team70c1,000$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.7431547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed BetBoom Team60c999.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40032445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3167…32a2backed GamerLegion43c934.77$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012151.2%62 W · 59 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed GamerLegion22c900$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20118143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked BetBoom Team77c880.58$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7710040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed GamerLegion22c843.95$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.671,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x577b…ad6abacked BetBoom Team77c734.88$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed GamerLegion18c730.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8920233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked BetBoom Team77c684.53$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6913359.4%79 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BetBoom Team75c666.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5279959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed BetBoom Team61c654.35$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3520642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed GamerLegion24c624.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed GamerLegion26c597.68$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15329352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed BetBoom Team61c570$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.317249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa936…8ee6backed BetBoom Team60c537.48$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.83450%17 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked BetBoom Team80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10028251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked GamerLegion15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked BetBoom Team62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19037047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked BetBoom Team76c499.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12010766.4%71 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked GamerLegion45c422.78$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2522031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed BetBoom Team73c399.99$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked BetBoom Team75c350$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8854659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed GamerLegion24c347.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6465647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed BetBoom Team59c342.86$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2691553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked BetBoom Team77c340.66$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3561449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2355…4869backed BetBoom Team73c336.75$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9210552.4%55 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed GamerLegion30c331.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed BetBoom Team71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed BetBoom Team73c299.19$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6967555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed BetBoom Team77c277.77$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.25354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked GamerLegion22c270.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3721558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team73c245.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.761,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed BetBoom Team77c235$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.055048%24 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed BetBoom Team77c229.29$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7431865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed GamerLegion18c212.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team74c201.02$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed GamerLegion12c200.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.141632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked BetBoom Team75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5026445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf9…ad6ebacked BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987753.2%41 W · 36 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988243.9%36 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9845…9d6fbacked BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5264…7eb9backed BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9812048.3%58 W · 62 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed BetBoom Team51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987553.3%40 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31dd…4537backed GamerLegion23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468925.8%23 W · 66 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked BetBoom Team71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7521941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed GamerLegion20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4037253%197 W · 175 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed GamerLegion24c190.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1981345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team72c170.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf897…8453backed BetBoom Team58c170.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.948146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed BetBoom Team58c170$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0914136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed BetBoom Team77c165.32$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.196844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8987…d5b9backed BetBoom Team61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed BetBoom Team51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.49347.3%44 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed BetBoom Team51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.413044.6%58 W · 72 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed BetBoom Team65c152$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.228650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed BetBoom Team66c151.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5110853.7%58 W · 50 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e6…8532backed GamerLegion29c145.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310849.1%53 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team77c138.63$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed BetBoom Team51c130$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.750247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed BetBoom Team78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.217864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.