MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b94b7c78b2bdfd51b909c283adc108904f6b3efc5970e90954669f08ea3118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,960 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 3,235$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.23 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 1,398$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.3 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 1,257$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.7 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 1,159$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.04 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 801.33$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.44 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 745.49$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.38 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 566.24$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.17 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…4925backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 528.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 524.11$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.27 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 424.53$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…bb7fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 300.27$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 254.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 243$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 206.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 203.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 188.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 146$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 132.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 127.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 9c | 122.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 11c | 121.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 89.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cincinnati Reds | 14c | 75.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Cincinnati Reds | 15c | 73.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 66.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 64.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 35.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82a…ef47backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 34.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 31.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…188dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…ca4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 20.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…e029backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 20.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.