CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1dd72a5ae17a9ed6f7bfd340d71e492df4ce82b3fbc050dd86806abd7672287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d93…2cf1backed fnatic | 74c | 3,352$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.09 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -13.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed OG | 34c | 2,220$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.12 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed OG | 33c | 2,155$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.74 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked fnatic | 71c | 1,239$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.47 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked OG | 32c | 1,094$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.04 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked OG | 4c | 749$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked OG | 29c | 743.1$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed fnatic | 68c | 666$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.82 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked fnatic | 76c | 575$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8375…ba1dbacked fnatic | 74c | 558.06$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed fnatic | 52c | 529.87$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.56 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…51b1backed OG | 56c | 483.93$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked OG | 43c | 468.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed OG | 10c | 466.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…90c8backed OG | 19c | 439.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked OG | 28c | 425.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…091dbacked OG | 59c | 408.47$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed OG | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed OG | 55c | 324.74$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…d9dcbacked OG | 38c | 318.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 656 | 50.3%330 W · 326 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed fnatic | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked fnatic | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed OG | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 60c | 206.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed OG | 25c | 201.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed OG | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed OG | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 32c | 191.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…0ae3backed fnatic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 313 | 72.8%228 W · 85 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…5f58backed fnatic | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked fnatic | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked OG | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 477 | 38.4%183 W · 294 L | -26.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed fnatic | 72c | 137.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…5100backed fnatic | 73c | 136.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked fnatic | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed fnatic | 67c | 127.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked fnatic | 45c | 124.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 598 | 39.6%237 W · 361 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked fnatic | 73c | 121.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed OG | 15c | 120.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…159abacked OG | 36c | 115.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9f80backed fnatic | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed OG | 23c | 96.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…9e52backed OG | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -9.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 22c | 87.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed OG | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 618 | 37.9%234 W · 384 L | -22.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked fnatic | 79c | 56.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…3704backed fnatic | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed fnatic | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked fnatic | 69c | 48.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked OG | 32c | 46.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked OG | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…ffa1backed OG | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…1007backed fnatic | 57c | 41.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked fnatic | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 446 | 41.3%184 W · 262 L | -28.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…8368backed fnatic | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed fnatic | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…a700backed fnatic | 57c | 29.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed OG | 38c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -9.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…74e0backed fnatic | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…d7f3backed fnatic | 73c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.