South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa23c251805892c8358f9bd0dad43f60c73ddf0a9a8dbfe58e14a928e7d4b6984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 7,737$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.61 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 36c | 6,728$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,422.06 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 37c | 6,571$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 2,281$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 14c | 1,632$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 1,500$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8224…7384backed Over | 15c | 1,264$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 34c | 1,039$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 63c | 1,018$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.75 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 11c | 821.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 798.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 63c | 793$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.41 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 73c | 416.33$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 63c | 301.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 64c | 295.32$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 13c | 289.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 12c | 264.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 34c | 115.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 65c | 112.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 15c | 95.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 24c | 86.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Under | 76c | 85.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 35c | 59.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 18c | 54.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 51.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Under | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 64c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 69c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: CA Newell's Old Boys O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Talleres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Talleres won
- Spread: CA Talleres (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Talleres (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.