Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24f6b43fbba25361f1b9bcc28b0cb80be4bc68ff481e9e3a68281e2504e36c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8171…f5e8backed Yes | 1c | 8,173$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed Yes | 15c | 2,446$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 35c | 1,153$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.8 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 999.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 13c | 863.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 24c | 800.15$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 640.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 578.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 14c | 489.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 438.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 379.83$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 331.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 34c | 322.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…85bfbacked Yes | 21c | 288.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 20c | 243.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 19c | 234.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 222$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 27c | 219.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 15c | 207.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 9c | 191.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 168.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 161.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 19c | 133.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 21c | 128.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 14c | 123.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…ee8bbacked Yes | 20c | 122.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked No | 73c | 120.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 120.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 28c | 106.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 17c | 89.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 28c | 89.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 15c | 80.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 72.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 59.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes | 46c | 54.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…8b9cbacked No | 76c | 41.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or below on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or higher on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.