Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa568c3445a8eae04ca5b4713c1ec40f4ef11ae2e814085cdf6dcb8539e47ccb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 64c | 1,574$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.91 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…c1e0backed Yes | 65c | 1,150$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…3058backed No | 35c | 1,150$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 13c | 781.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 77c | 566.56$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 79c | 508.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8214backed No | 2c | 453.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 448.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 64c | 376.44$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 360$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 61c | 342$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked No | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 56c | 309$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked No | 10c | 294.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 266.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 68c | 262.74$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed No | 37c | 253.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…08f1backed Yes | 56c | 234.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked No | 45c | 199.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 59c | 196$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 59c | 170.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 144.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 59c | 140$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 115.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 112.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 69c | 105.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 54c | 105.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 60c | 102.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 55c | 93.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 70c | 89.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 88.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 75c | 87.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 65c | 81.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 56c | 53.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…5883backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 53c | 41.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 67c | 37.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…1dd2backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 28.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 62c | 28.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or below on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or higher on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.