TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$398,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,272 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef54…d1eebacked Maple Leafs50c109,040$53,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,046.0817749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Blue Jackets51c87,235$44,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,257.888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs48c53,559$25,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,638.081,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Blue Jackets55c40,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,00042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27c9…2278backed Blue Jackets52c36,403$18,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,784.731752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Blue Jackets53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,899.9425449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Maple Leafs45c22,643$10,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,453.7439047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs47c20,596$9,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,916.11,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs47c15,733$7,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,345.891,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37b…cabbbacked Blue Jackets0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Blue Jackets51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10022550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Blue Jackets49c8,673$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,25047951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blue Jackets51c8,000$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,06589547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Maple Leafs49c6,384$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.068749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Blue Jackets51c6,118$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.9915954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Maple Leafs50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Blue Jackets53c4,974$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.0662249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs48c4,327$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.241,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8138…1052backed Blue Jackets1c4,197$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Maple Leafs50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00013333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Blue Jackets54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blue Jackets49c3,481$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.111,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Maple Leafs46c3,333$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.8222546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Blue Jackets50c2,917$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.672955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Blue Jackets54c2,779$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.6530551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Blue Jackets51c2,698$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.67659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dec…a4a3backed Blue Jackets54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x931c…250cbacked Maple Leafs48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blue Jackets54c2,429$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.7489249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs50c2,285$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.8995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Maple Leafs47c2,225$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.2532251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f32…1d64backed Blue Jackets54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Blue Jackets1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jackets10c2,133$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.252,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Blue Jackets52c2,103$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.5638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blue Jackets50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Blue Jackets51c1,713$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.6227143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs51c1,671$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.8575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs46c1,500$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Blue Jackets32c1,495$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.2661848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Blue Jackets50c1,339$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.272,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Maple Leafs50c1,337$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.53357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jackets51c1,283$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.291,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Maple Leafs45c1,200$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs45c1,166$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.31,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs46c1,150$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6271,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Blue Jackets54c1,133$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.454134.1%14 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Blue Jackets52c1,064$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.71,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Blue Jackets1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Maple Leafs47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5306162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Blue Jackets54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54070249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Maple Leafs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50011151.4%57 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Maple Leafs50c999.48$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.747244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Blue Jackets51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020047.5%95 W · 105 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Blue Jackets51c973.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Blue Jackets28c900.8$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Maple Leafs49c849.17$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.5784953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Blue Jackets49c803.12$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.5369550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646c…b502backed Blue Jackets50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Maple Leafs50c797.37$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.733751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Maple Leafs45c787.51$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.4699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs47c761$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.281,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Blue Jackets52c750$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.545955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs50c712.04$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.6850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Maple Leafs46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3788956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs49c700$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.757453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Blue Jackets54c659$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.861,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blue Jackets52c641$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.181,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Blue Jackets50c602$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30116241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Maple Leafs50c596.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.086139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f6…6e69backed Blue Jackets54c593.83$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.675054%27 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce29…9147backed Maple Leafs47c593.62$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.622458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Maple Leafs27c592$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1613435.8%48 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Maple Leafs45c537.48$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.5830152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Blue Jackets50c513.6$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.171,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Blue Jackets51c510.02$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1119942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Blue Jackets51c508.11$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.192,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Maple Leafs50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25032451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Maple Leafs50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Maple Leafs50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35a…98a0backed Maple Leafs47c470$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Maple Leafs51c428.78$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.127150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc442…638dbacked Maple Leafs47c423.4$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff8…5072backed Blue Jackets54c416.98$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1770%0 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8f7…b542backed Maple Leafs46c413.04$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.042454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Blue Jackets52c411$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.381,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Blue Jackets50c408.17$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6410848.1%52 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Maple Leafs50c401$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.547051.5%242 W · 228 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ba…2481backed Blue Jackets54c400$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21413554.1%73 W · 62 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7581…ea2dbacked Maple Leafs46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21612244.3%54 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Maple Leafs46c391.3$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.318548.1%89 W · 96 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Maple Leafs52c387.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.195240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Blue Jackets43c375$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4760141.9%252 W · 349 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Blue Jackets17c352$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8429412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2de…9fb3backed Maple Leafs50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506241.9%26 W · 36 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Blue Jackets53c282.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0443944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed6…ea5abacked Blue Jackets53c270$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jackets51c269.49$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.161,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Maple Leafs49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.516246.9%76 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.