MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27493775a2a833224ff7a706c11ce7de2a39ff8b4fdc6ad82e24c4b8d9e8bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 60,000$34,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,199.99 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 43c | 52,322$22,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,823.39 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Over | 44c | 10,909$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,109.14 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 1,626$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 988.77$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 640.78$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 548.79$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 528.21$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 56c | 278$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f28…e3d9backed Under | 57c | 156.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 30c | 140.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 42c | 64.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 58c | 57.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 71c | 33.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.