MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40a8eae4dde6b784eea471d3cffe4408520a13392141311410528b8b087c5c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 7,082$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 3,080$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 2,585$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 2,031$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,228$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 805.45$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 534$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 410.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 390$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 285.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 225.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 215.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 199.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 99.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 94.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 87.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 70.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 68.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 64.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 58.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 57.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 56.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 54.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 40.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 36.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 31.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 28.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.