MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f14b0d42cfcb681bfdd666e040de8ae79b0942bb83462ad45211a200b29815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 77,777$38,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,110.72 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 68,202$34,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,419.21 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 7,113$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 2,021$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.21 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 1,365$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.85 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 1,187$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.43 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 51c | 1,024$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.76 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 933.82$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 42c | 898$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 699.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.17 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 638.65$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 621.15$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 465$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 302.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.52 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 73c | 237.38$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 229.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 217$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 196.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 51c | 177.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Under | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 161.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 149.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 51c | 137.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 51c | 102.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 51c | 96.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 51c | 77.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 51c | 77.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 49c | 76.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 51c | 71.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 45c | 70.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 52c | 68.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 53.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 49c | 52.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Over | 41c | 51.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 40c | 49.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 53c | 37.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 53c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 34.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 55c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…8865backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 30.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 44c | 29.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 57c | 27.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 71c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.